Friday, January 21, 2005

Conservative Democrats

The gnashing of teeth about the ascendance of conservatives in the South is overblown. (from NewDonkey)

Brownstein notes the formidable rise in the percentage of southern voters self-identifying as "conservative."
But a comparison of Bill Clinton's 1996 performance in the South to John Kerry's in 2004, makes it pretty clear that the rise--or more accurately, the resurgance--of southern conservatism is not necessarily the only cause of the current Republican ascendency, and is not inevitably an immovable object in the way of a Wave III Democratic revival.
In 1996, the ideological profile of southern voters was: 44% moderate, 39% conservative, 17% liberal. In 2004, it was 43% moderate, 40% conservative, 17% liberal. Not a big difference at all.
Clinton lost southern conservatives in 1996 by 55 points, while Kerry lost them by 73. And Clinton won the plurality group of southern moderates by 20 points, while Kerry won them by 4.
Good Democrats can win conservative southerners ... heck, "conservative" is certainly not the first word that comes to mind when evaluating Bush's fiscal policy. It's important to remember that "conservative" can mean a lot of different things, and that Democrats can compete on that terrain.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home

FREE hit counter and Internet traffic statistics from freestats.com