Two Ostriches Clash
"Should we stay or should we go?" is the clash of the day on Iraq.* The Economist quite rightly points out that "ostriches exist on both sides of this debate". [link$] The short supply of facts paves the way for wishful thinking, and one yearns for more hard evidence.
The Duke is attracted to the argument that
"the insurgency is driven by a simple hatred of foreign military occupation, the departure of the Americans might douse much of the fire. The withdrawal of their protector might compel the Shias and Kurds to show more generosity to the anxious Sunnis."A sudden withdrawal, on the other hand, could be seen as a victory for the insurgents, strengthening their recruiting and motivating a broader struggle. This question of the pragmatic effect of a U.S. withdrawal -- is Iraq better off with us, or without us -- is a question that those arguing for and against withdrawal must answer with more evidence.
The Economist's account($) of American success in Tal Afar provides evidence in support of more troops -- flooding the region with the overwhelming force of a 4,000-strong cavalry unit not only created security, it led to trust and better intelligence among the populace. It is such examples of concrete progress that are more compelling to me than the ominous domino theory that the Administration relies upon, and that the Economist ultimately parrots:
Once they believed they had cast out the Americans, the Iraqi jihadis would doubtless copy those who pushed the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan, and celebrated by exporting their struggle to the Middle East, North Africa, Kashmir, the Balkans and, on September 11th 2001, to the United States as well. In short, an American departure might well placate Muslim sentiment as a whole but at the same time embolden the groups who have declared war not only on “Jews and Crusaders” but also on secular regimes in Muslim lands around the world.The parallels to Soviet-occupied Afghanistan are less fitting than the parallels to Southeast Asia. This "Iraq as regional example" argument will fail miserably without more examples of success in the villages and neighborhoods. Let's pray that the American people start demanding more facts and less rhetoric.
posted by The Duke @ 9:42 PM
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3 Comments:
Here's more of the Economist article:
In fairness, some American fighters are striving to develop a softer touch. On patrol in Mosul last week, soldiers dropped by shops to ask the locals how they were doing. But, running hunched from shop to shop, rifle at the shoulder, their faces hidden by helmets and mirrored shades, they remained an intimidating sight. One shopkeeper politely asked them not to come again during the day as they were scaring away his customers.
And yet Mosulis, like most Iraqis, do now seem more willing to co-operate with their occupiers. Last year, a hotline for Iraqis to call in with information about the insurgency received barely 100 calls a month. Since the election, it has been receiving 300-400 calls, leading to the killing or capture of several mid-level insurgents.
The impression that there is still hope for America's forces in Iraq is reinforced farther west, towards the border with Syria, in Ninewa province. American hawks have accused Syria of flooding insurgents across this border, though it is hard to tell how they know this: until recently, America had deployed only 450 combat troops to police 200 miles (320km) of unfenced border and dozens of hostile towns, including Tal Afar, a place of 250,000 people, which saw a full-scale battle between American troops and insurgents last year.
In April, when a 4,000-strong American cavalry regiment was hastily sent to the area, it found virtually every town in insurgent hands, and Tal Afar a ghost-town. Shops were shuttered, schools were closed and the town's hospital was filled with wounded insurgents. Tal Afar's 200 policemen were besieged in an Ottoman fortress; the town's mayor, being alive, was assumed by the Americans to be an insurgent sympathiser.
Since then, the soldiers have set about proving a simple truth: where American troop numbers are increased, security improves. Columns of Abrams tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles now patrol Tal Afar's bomb-blasted streets. On its previous deployment, to Anbar, the regiment made many of the mistakes common to American forces in Iraq, admits its thoughtful commander, Colonel H.R. McMaster. These included the tendency to arrest military-age males indiscriminately. In Tal Afar, it is acting according to the intelligence it receives. As a result better intelligence is forthcoming. On a foot-patrol with the regiment in Tal Afar last week, half a dozen people offered information on the insurgents terrorising them. On the strength of one such tip-off the day before, 28 carefully identified suspects were surgically seized.
The Moose has an interesting warning. Still not convinced the policy's right, but the political argument is worth noting.
"Although the public's perception of Iraq is changing, Democrats cannot become the anti-war party - they must be smart hawks. Even at the apex of the Vietnam war in 1968, the American people elected the most hawkish candidate. The combined Nixon and Wallace vote formed an overwhelming majority. And Nixon crushed the anti-war McGovern in '72. While it may be currently attractive for Democrats to advocate an early exit, that position can come back to haunt the party if Iraq implodes and it becomes a terrorist haven."
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